temperature forecasting
Exploring Quantum Machine Learning for Weather Forecasting
da Silva, Maria Heloísa F., de Jesus, Gleydson F., Nascimento, Christiano M. S., da Silva, Valéria L., Cruz, Clebson
Weather forecasting plays a crucial role in supporting strategic decisions across various sectors, including agriculture, renewable energy production, and disaster management. However, the inherently dynamic and chaotic behavior of the atmosphere presents significant challenges to conventional predictive models. On the other hand, introducing quantum computing simulation techniques to the forecasting problems constitutes a promising alternative to overcome these challenges. In this context, this work explores the emerging intersection between quantum machine learning (QML) and climate forecasting. We present the implementation of a Quantum Neural Network (QNN) trained on real meteorological data from NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) database. The results show that QNN has the potential to outperform a classical Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) in terms of accuracy and adaptability to abrupt data shifts, particularly in wind speed prediction. Despite observed nonlinearities and architectural sensitivities, the QNN demonstrated robustness in handling temporal variability and faster convergence in temperature prediction. These findings highlight the potential of quantum models in short and medium term climate prediction, while also revealing key challenges and future directions for optimization and broader applicability.
Generalizable AI Model for Indoor Temperature Forecasting Across Sub-Saharan Africa
Akhtar, Zainab, Jengo, Eunice, Haßler, Björn
This study presents a lightweight, domain-informed AI model for predicting indoor temperatures in naturally ventilated schools and homes in Sub-Saharan Africa. The model extends the Temp-AI-Estimator framework, trained on Tanzanian school data, and evaluated on Nigerian schools and Gambian homes. It achieves robust cross-country performance using only minimal accessible inputs, with mean absolute errors of 1.45°C for Nigerian schools and 0.65°C for Gambian homes. These findings highlight AI's potential for thermal comfort management in resource-constrained environments.
Maximum Temperature Prediction Using Remote Sensing Data Via Convolutional Neural Network
Innocenti, Lorenzo, Blanco, Giacomo, Barco, Luca, Rossi, Claudio
Urban heat islands, defined as specific zones exhibiting substantially higher temperatures than their immediate environs, pose significant threats to environmental sustainability and public health. This study introduces a novel machine-learning model that amalgamates data from the Sentinel-3 satellite, meteorological predictions, and additional remote sensing inputs. The primary aim is to generate detailed spatiotemporal maps that forecast the peak temperatures within a 24-hour period in Turin. Experimental results validate the model's proficiency in predicting temperature patterns, achieving a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 2.09 degrees Celsius for the year 2023 at a resolution of 20 meters per pixel, thereby enriching our knowledge of urban climatic behavior. This investigation enhances the understanding of urban microclimates, emphasizing the importance of cross-disciplinary data integration, and laying the groundwork for informed policy-making aimed at alleviating the negative impacts of extreme urban temperatures.
Global Transformer Architecture for Indoor Room Temperature Forecasting
Clemente, Alfredo V, Nocente, Alessandro, Ruocco, Massimiliano
A thorough regulation of building energy systems translates in relevant energy savings and in a better comfort for the occupants. Algorithms to predict the thermal state of a building on a certain time horizon with a good confidence are essential for the implementation of effective control systems. This work presents a global Transformer architecture for indoor temperature forecasting in multi-room buildings, aiming at optimizing energy consumption and reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with HVAC systems. Recent advancements in deep learning have enabled the development of more sophisticated forecasting models compared to traditional feedback control systems. The proposed global Transformer architecture can be trained on the entire dataset encompassing all rooms, eliminating the need for multiple room-specific models, significantly improving predictive performance, and simplifying deployment and maintenance. Notably, this study is the first to apply a Transformer architecture for indoor temperature forecasting in multi-room buildings. The proposed approach provides a novel solution to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of temperature forecasting, serving as a valuable tool to optimize energy consumption and decrease greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector.
Predicting Temperature of Major Cities Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning
Jaharabi, Wasiou, Hossain, MD Ibrahim Al, Tahmid, Rownak, Islam, Md. Zuhayer, Rayhan, T. M. Saad
Currently, the issue that concerns the world leaders most is climate change for its effect on agriculture, environment and economies of daily life. So, to combat this, temperature prediction with strong accuracy is vital. So far, the most effective widely used measure for such forecasting is Numerical weather prediction (NWP) which is a mathematical model that needs broad data from different applications to make predictions. This expensive, time and labor consuming work can be minimized through making such predictions using Machine learning algorithms. Using the database made by University of Dayton which consists the change of temperature in major cities we used the Time Series Analysis method where we use LSTM for the purpose of turning existing data into a tool for future prediction. LSTM takes the long-term data as well as any short-term exceptions or anomalies that may have occurred and calculates trend, seasonality and the stationarity of a data. By using models such as ARIMA, SARIMA, Prophet with the concept of RNN and LSTM we can, filter out any abnormalities, preprocess the data compare it with previous trends and make a prediction of future trends. Also, seasonality and stationarity help us analyze the reoccurrence or repeat over one year variable and removes the constrain of time in which the data was dependent so see the general changes that are predicted. By doing so we managed to make prediction of the temperature of different cities during any time in future based on available data and built a method of accurate prediction. This document contains our methodology for being able to make such predictions.
TENT: Tensorized Encoder Transformer for Temperature Forecasting
Bilgin, Onur, Mąka, Paweł, Vergutz, Thomas, Mehrkanoon, Siamak
Reliable weather forecasting is of great importance in science, business and society. The best performing data-driven models for weather prediction tasks rely on recurrent or convolutional neural networks, where some of which incorporate attention mechanisms. In this work, we introduce a new model based on the Transformer architecture for weather forecasting. The proposed Tensorial Encoder Transformer (TENT) model is equipped with tensorial attention and thus it exploits the spatiotemporal structure of weather data by processing it in multidimensional tensorial format. We show that compared to the encoder part of the original transformer and 3D convolutional neural networks, the proposed TENT model can better model the underlying complex pattern of weather data for the studied temperature prediction task. Experiments on two real-life weather datasets are performed. The datasets consist of historical measurements from USA, Canada and European cities. The first dataset contains hourly measurements of weather attributes for 30 cities in USA and Canada from October 2012 to November 2017. The second dataset contains daily measurements of weather attributes of 18 cities across Europe from May 2005 to April 2020. We use attention scores calculated from our attention mechanism to shed light on the decision-making process of our model and have insight knowledge on the most important cities for the task.